PATHWAY 1 FREE HOME-BASED CAPACITY STRESS TEST
Does your capacity calculation survive contact with demand?
Test whether a broad average overstates how many people the planned direct-care hours can support each month.
Your live resultUpdates as assumptions change
This combination cannot be tested.
Reduce the 28-hour share or increase the overall averages so the balancing cohort remains possible.
Reduce the 28-hour share or increase the overall averages so the balancing cohort remains possible.
Your broad-average model suggests capacity for 400 starts a month. At the same target utilisation, the stress test estimates capacity at 354 once package size and length of service are considered together—a potential 13.2% overstatement.
POTENTIAL FALSE ASSURANCE
Your overall averages stay the same. The test works backwards from the higher-intensity share to estimate the rest of the caseload, then shows what that mix does to capacity.
So what? Interpreting the result
A reassuring average can still hide a recurring shortfall.
This free test uses broad assumptions to show how package mix can change the capacity implied by an average. A more precise local assessment would use the full distribution of package sizes and length of service.
This test starts from planned direct-care hours. It does not convert workforce establishments, funded posts or paid hours into patient-facing capacity.
If the broad view covers expected starts but the stress view does not, the capacity position depends on an average that may not describe how hours are actually consumed.
Protect the remaining margin. A positive result does not remove the need to validate package and length-of-service distributions locally.
The issue is not hidden only by case mix. Test whether the response belongs in capacity, productivity, pathway design or demand management.
Using the test Pathway 1 decision guide
What this test helps you challenge.
This test helps NHS and local authority commissioners, providers and operational teams check whether a Pathway 1 capacity estimate based on averages still holds once package mix and length of service are considered together.
- Decision tested
- Whether planned home-based capacity is likely to cover expected monthly starts—or whether the average creates potential false assurance.
- Who it is for
- NHS and local authority commissioners, providers and operational leads responsible for Pathway 1 home-based care.
- Assumptions used
- Planned direct-care hours, target utilisation, average package size, length of service, expected monthly starts and higher-intensity case mix.
- The result can indicate
- Expected starts covered, a visible shortfall or capacity potentially overstated by the broad average.
- It cannot establish
- The exact local requirement without validating workforce, geography, referral patterns and service distributions.
Questions this test can help explore
- Can average package size overstate home-based capacity?
- How does pathway mix change capacity at target utilisation?
- What happens when planned capacity is tested against expected monthly starts?
- Which assumptions require local validation before investment?
The free test shows where the average may be misleading. A fuller review would use your local package, length-of-service, workforce and demand data.
THE DECISION AFTER THE NUMBER
Do not let potential false assurance become an expensive commitment.
Questant can test the result against local package, cohort and flow evidence before funding or workforce is committed.
Indicative decision support. Not a substitute for local validation or professional judgement.