Is the planned occupancy buffer still present in daily operation?
Compare the planned occupancy with the level the system works towards each day.
QUESTANT INSIGHT · FREE P2 FLOW STRESS TEST
Enough beds on paper?
Test whether the P2 bed base in your chosen scenario can provide timely daily access over 90 days—not just enough capacity across a month.
WHAT SHOULD THE RESULT TRIGGER?
A monthly capacity margin does not guarantee timely daily access.
Before considering additional beds, check whether length of stay or P2 NCTR is preventing existing beds from becoming available when needed. These factors may be contributing more to the delay than the total number of beds.
Why are beds not becoming available?
Check how P2 NCTR and length of stay affect how quickly beds become available before adding capacity.
Can these baseline assumptions occur together?
Check whether daily P2-ready demand, length of stay and occupancy describe an achievable operating position.
Using the simulator · Pathway 2 decision guide
What this simulator helps you challenge.
This simulator helps NHS and local authority commissioners, providers and operational teams test whether a P2 bed baseline can provide timely daily access over 90 days once occupancy, turnover and P2 NCTR are considered together.
- Decision tested
- Whether the P2 bed baseline can provide timely access at the required delay target.
- Who it is for
- NHS and local authority commissioners, providers and operational leads responsible for Pathway 2 bed capacity, discharge and NCTR flow.
- Assumptions used
- P2 beds, average length of stay, expected monthly admissions, planned and operating occupancy, P2 NCTR, daily P2-ready demand and the delay target.
- The result can indicate
- How operating occupancy changes waiting, delay and pressure on acute beds over 90 days.
- It cannot establish
- The exact local requirement without validating arrival patterns, discharge patterns, length-of-stay distributions and pathway constraints.
Questions this test can help explore
- Can the P2 beds in scope provide timely daily access over 90 days?
- How do operating occupancy and P2 NCTR change waiting?
- Would additional beds provide a lasting benefit if turnover remained unchanged?
- At what operating occupancy does the planned access benefit begin to disappear?
The simulator shows which assumptions may need local validation. A fuller review would use local arrivals, length of stay, P2 NCTR, discharge, occupancy and demand data.
THE DECISION AFTER THE MODEL
When the monthly and 90-day results disagree, test the local assumptions.
A fuller review would use local arrival patterns, length of stay, P2 NCTR, discharge behaviour and occupancy data.