The problem
Does the evidence support the problem the proposal says it is solving?
Before the decision is made
Investment & Impact Stress Test
A rapid independent challenge of the evidence, assumptions and expected impact behind a decision you are being asked to make.
01 The situation
When this is useful
You have a business case, investment proposal or options paper approaching a decision.
The case may look reasonable. The numbers may add up. The proposed intervention may even be the preferred option.
But something is making you hesitate.
Perhaps the expected impact feels stronger than the evidence. Perhaps the capacity assumptions look optimistic. Perhaps the case demonstrates what will be delivered without quite establishing why that activity should change the outcome.
Or perhaps you simply want someone independent to ask the questions that are harder to see once a proposal has been developed internally.
Trust the hesitation. Give me the paper and tell me when the decision needs to be made.
02 Independent challenge
What I will do
I will review the case as if I were preparing to challenge it before the decision is made.
I will test the numbers, assumptions and causal logic behind the recommendation. I will look for where evidence ends and assumption begins, whether the proposed intervention addresses the stated constraint, what has to be true for the expected benefit to materialise and what the paper does not yet tell the decision-maker.
I will then give you the questions I would want answered before approving it.
The numbers
Do the demand, capacity, productivity, cost and benefit assumptions behave as claimed?
The intervention
Is there a credible link between what is being purchased and the outcome expected?
The decision
What uncertainty or assumption risk should leaders understand before committing?
03 Responsive scope
Scale the review to the decision
The time available determines the depth, not whether I can help.
A few days
Send me the paper and supporting evidence. I will independently review the case and identify the questions, assumptions and gaps I would want addressed before approval.
1–2 weeks
I can go further into the underlying numbers, test material assumptions, reconcile selected evidence and speak to the people responsible for the case.
Up to 3 weeks
Where the decision warrants it, I can stress-test scenarios, compare alternative explanations or options and provide a more developed independent assessment of the case.
04 Usable judgement
What you get
You get independent judgement you can use before the decision is made.
Depending on the scope and time available, that may include:
- a marked-up review of the proposal or business case
- the questions I would expect an executive team, committee or board to ask
- assumptions or evidence that need strengthening before approval
- specific challenges to demand, capacity, productivity, financial or impact claims
- a short written opinion on where the case is strong and where confidence should be qualified
- recommended conditions, measures or further evidence if the proposal proceeds
- a short discussion with the decision-maker or sponsoring executive
Use the challenge directly, take it into the meeting, or use it to strengthen the paper before anybody else asks the same questions.
Evidence from the work
The proposed answer was more capacity. The constraint was broader.
A proposed investment focused on purchasing additional single-purpose discharge capacity. Review of the business case indicated that the constraint extended beyond one pathway queue.
The investment was redesigned around a mixed nursing, therapy and care workforce able to operate across discharge, community-bed step-down, bridging into longer-term care and admission avoidance.
The resulting model delivered around 10× the activity of the original single-purpose approach while creating greater flexibility across multiple points of constraint.
The difference was not simply more capacity. It was capacity designed around how the pathway actually behaved.
Independent challenge changed what the investment purchased before the commitment was made.
05 The value of independence
Why not just ask the team to review it again?
Sometimes that is exactly what you should do.
But the people closest to a proposal may also have developed it, negotiated it, modelled it or spent months trying to get it approved.
I arrive without a preferred answer or a service model to defend.
My job is to find the question, assumption or piece of evidence most capable of changing the decision while there is still time to do something about it.
06 A low-friction start
What I need from you
At minimum:
The paper. The decision date. What is making you hesitate.
If more evidence is available, I can use it. If there is time to speak with the people behind the proposal, I can do that too.
Do not delay getting in touch because the evidence pack is incomplete. The time remaining before the decision is part of how we determine the scope.
You do not need a finished brief
Send me the decision you are being asked to make
Tell me when it needs to be decided and what is making you hesitate. I can tell you quickly what level of independent challenge is realistic in the time available.